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Sprint Cup Odds
January 1st Auto Racing news ... Sprint Cup Odds at sprintcupodds.com
NASCAR: Pennsylvania 500 (1:18 PM ET, ESPN)
2021-07-30
NASCAR continues its march towards the Chase when it travels to Pocono Raceway again on Sunday for the Pennsylvania 500. This will be the second time in two months that the Cup Series will have visited Pocono, following Denny Hamlin’s win in the June race. Hamlin just happens to be the defending champion of this race too, and accomplished the season sweep at this track in the 2006 season. Is it any wonder why he is the race favorite for Sunday at 4-1 odds according to ?
The rest of the favorites board includes Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch, at 6-1, plus Jeff Gordon, at 9-1. Of the three, none really commands any respect due to recent performance at this venue. Busch‘s career is actually littered with struggles at Pocono, as he owns just three Top 10 finishes in 11 prior starts. One of those came in June though, in his runner-up finish. Johnson has two career Pocono wins, but none since ’04. Gordon is tied with Hamlin at the top of the active career wins board, with four. However, since the advent of the COT, he has just a single Top 5 and average finish of 13.6 in five starts.
Hamlin truly is the man to beat this week, as he had led 179 of 404 laps in the last two races here and has been in the Top 15 in 403 of those, or 99.8%! He is the career average finish leader at 8.6 and owns seven Top 10 finishes in his nine starts. Oddsmakers might want to adjust their second tier favorites though, as several other drivers figure to have a better shot to win than Johnson, Gordon, or Busch. Instead you might want to consider Carl Edwards (20-1), Tony Stewart (10-1), Kasey Kahne (20-1), Juan Montoya (20-1), or Clint Bowyer (12-1). Edwards is second to Hamlin in laps led in the COT at 158, and has a win and average finish of 8.4 in those five starts. Stewart, like Hamlin, has three Top 5’s in those races, including a 3rd place finish in June. Kahne has a ’08 win and 145 laps led in the COT to his credit, while Bowyer is among the other drivers who seems to run out front at this track, evidenced by his 82 laps led. Finally, there is Montoya…victim of what seems to be the worst luck of any driver on these 2.5-mile flat superspeedway’s. He finished eighth here in June but has two DNF’s in the COT to go along with consecutive DNF’s at Indy.
A series sweep at Pocono is not uncommon, as the only real difference between this race and the June one figures to be that the track has heated up over the course of the summer. In addition, the schedule of recent years has this race always the week after the Brickyard 400, meaning a second consecutive race on a 2.5-mile flat track. While Indianapolis Motor Speedway's rectangular shape is significantly different than the Pocono triangle, many of the same skills are required to go fast on both. Drivers who ran well last week also should dominate the front of the pack this week. Of course, there always is the uncertain intangible of luck. Jamie McMurray (25-1) was the beneficiary of the luck last week, as he won the Brickyard 400 only after Montoya, who dominated most of the race, hit the wall late in a desperate attempt to get back out front after a miscalculated pit road choice.
Of the potential dark horses to consider, or those drivers who don’t boast the best Pocono stats, Kevin Harvick (10-1) finished fourth in the first Pocono race and enters the weekend with top-fives in his past two flat-track races and there is every indication he will add another at Pocono. Sam Hornish Jr. (25-1) is a bigger longshot but last year, he swept the top 10 in both races there and narrowly missed adding a third such finish with an 11th earlier this year. Dollar for dollar, he might be the best value in the game this week. Jamie McMurray is developing a reputation for stepping up for the big races after winning this year's Daytona 500, finishing second in the Coke 600, and winning last week's Brickyard 400. It remains to be seen if he can level out his results and also run strong on smaller stages, but considering that he earned a fifth at Chicagoland two weeks ago, he's well worth the risk. So far it's been difficult for McMurray to string together good results. This week, he enters Pocono with consecutive top-fives for the first time all season. Greg Biffle (20-1) is also noteworthy in that he had a strong third place run at Indy and may be readying himself for a late charge to ensure a Chase spot.
Other drivers you may want to avoid include Joey Logano (35-1), Kurt Busch (20-1), Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (35-1), and Mark Martin (25-1). Of the four, there is just a single Top 5 finish, belonging to Junior, in the five races run in the COT.
The action gets started with qualifying at 3:40 pm ET on Friday. Denny Hamlin started 4th in the June victory, and runner-up Kyle Busch started 2nd. In short, qualifying is very important here. In fact, of the last 16 races, six winners have started on the pole and six others were in the first three rows. Practice is also highly important, as the last nine Pocono winners have averaged a 5.0 Happy Hour rank with only one finishing worse than 6th in the session. Sunday’s race comes around at 1:18 pm ET.
Brickyard 400 (1:15 PM ET, ESPN)
2021-07-24
Seven races remain until the NASCAR Cup Series reaches the Chase, or the postseason if you will. After enjoying the last weekend off, the drivers get back to work at famed Indianapolis Motor Speedway, where they’ve been coming once annually for the Brickyard 400 ever since ’94. There has been just a short list of dominant drivers here historically, with Jeff Gordon and Dale Jarrett sharing honors in the early years and since passing the torch on to Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson. In fact, those latter two have won the last five races at Indy and for good reason are listed as the favorites for Sunday according to .
With just seven races remaining to qualify for the Chase, this race takes on significance, perhaps even more than usual, since Indianapolis’ sister track, Pocono Raceway, also is on the upcoming schedule. Drivers that fare well at this 2-1/2 mile flat superspeedway typically do well at Pocono, which has similar features. That said, a victory this week is a much-coveted one, both for the pageantry of the host venue, the Brickyard, as well as the prize money disbursed to the winner. As is usually the case, the stars tend shine brightest on the biggest stage, as the last seven winners of this race are mega-stars. Jimmie Johnson & Tony Stewart have won the last five Brickyard 400’s, with Johnson being the defending two-time champion. Jeff Gordon won the 2004 event and Kevin Harvick reached Victory Lane in 2003. Of course, those latter two are currently the 2010 standings.It’s interesting to note that Johnson, winner of three of the last four races here, went on to his first of four straight series titles after taking home his first Checkered Flag from Indy. In fact, that feat has happened now eight times in 16 years, further signifying the importance of winning the Brickyard 400.
Most experts believe that there is only a slight difference between the car setups used at Indianapolis to those at Pocono. Keep that in mind when handicapping, since coincidentally, another trip to Pocono follows this week’s event. The top three in the June race at Pocono were Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Tony Stewart. Looking at the results at the two tracks combined in the COT (since ’08), you’ll find Jimmie Johnson atop the heap in almost every key statistical category. In seven total races, he leads in Poles (2), Wins (2), Average Finish (5.1), Top 5’s (4), Top 10’s (6), and Laps Led (241). It’s no wonder that oddsmakers have established him as the 7-2 favorite. Stewart is next at 7-1, and he boasts four Top 5’s as well in that 7-race stretch, along with an average finish of 11.0. Denny Hamlin is listed at 8-1, with 222 laps led and four Top 5’s. However, his success has come mostly at Pocono, with his average finish at Indy in four career starts just 17.3.
Beyond the three favorites in terms of stats and odds, you’ll find a handful of other drivers capable of competing for the win on Sunday. Jeff Gordon, at 8-1 heads that list. He has a remarkable 10 Top 5’s in 2010, though he’s yet to reach Victory Lane. Having spent time in his childhood in Indiana, many consider this Gordon’s home track, and he could break the winless drought on Sunday. It would be his career-leading 5th Indy win. Kyle Busch also shares 8-1 odds, although he has not won in five Inday starts, and has averaged just a 24.6 finish in the seven flat superspeedway races in the COT. Juan Montoya (12-1), Kevin Harvick (12-1), Jeff Burton (14-1), Carl Edwards (20-1) and Kasey Kahne (20-1)will wrap up my own personal short list of contenders for the weekend. Typically, a driver has to be either running very well at the time, or have a rich history at Indy to win the Brickyard 400. All five meet one or both of that criteria. Of the group, Kahne & Edwards are the only winners at a track like this in the last seven COT races, though Montoya has threatened to win and seems to love coming back to the Brickyard, a track he ran while in open wheel racing. The Childress guys, Harvick and Burton, are running very well over the last month.
Among the drivers you may want to avoid this week, at least in terms of the numbers, are Kurt Busch (12-1), Matt Kenseth (25-1), Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (30-1), Martin Truex (35-1), and Jamie McMurray (35-1).Busch has surprisingly bad numbers at Pocono and Indy in the COT, with an average finish of 23.6 and two DNF’s. Kenseth is struggling to put things together during his break-in period with his new crew chief, and has averaged just 15.7 in the past seven flat superspeedway races. Junior, Truex, and McMurray are longshots as the odds suggest, and have combined for only three Top 10 finishes and 17 laps led in 21 starts.
This week’s qualifying for the Brickyard 400 begins Saturday at 10:10 AM ET, with the race green flag scheduled for Sunday at 1:19 PM ET. With track position being critical, the qualifying usually plays a huge factor, with eight of the previous 16 winners starting in the top 5. Jimmie Johnson started 16th a year ago and won. No winner has ever come from worse than the 27th starting spot. Johnson has also finished 3rd in ’09, and 1st in ’08 in Happy Hour, so if he demonstrates similar speed this weekend in practice, look out.
NASCAR: Toyota/Save Mart 350 (3:15 PM ET, TNT)
2021-06-19
NASCAR hits the road for the first time this weekend, or more specifically, the road course, as the Cup Series takes on the twists and turns on Infineon Raceway in Sonoma, California. Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 is the first of two-season road racing events, races that seem to be generating more and more excitement each season. Once vilified by fans of the sport for the obvious differences from the schedule’s other races, these events have become widely embraced. Competition is fierce, there is plenty of beating and banging on the track at any given time, and the presence of road course “ringers” like Boris Said and P.J. Jones offer quite a changeup from the ovals. Still, even with the added talent and varied skills needed to win these races, it’s always a series regular that leaves with the checkered flag. The driver favored to do so this week is Tony Stewart, who at 5-1, is looking for his third win at Sonoma and 8th road course triumph overall.
There are several drivers who typically run up-front at Sonoma and Watkins Glen, the two road courses, and that collective group is reflected in the odds for this week. Besides Tony Stewart at 5-1, Jeff Gordon, Juan Montoya, and Marcos Ambrose are listed at 6-1, and Kyle Busch is 7-1. No one else is in single-digits. Stewart’s average finish at the two tracks since ’07 has been 3.7 in the last six races, all Top 10 finishes, and he has led 72 laps during that span. Gordon owns the most career wins and pole positions at Infineon, with five each. He is in a bit of a road win drought though, having gone 0 for 6 in the COT races since ’07. Juan Montoya has been very impressive at this facility, owning his only ever Cup Series win plus an average finish of 4.3 in three prior starts, despite starting with an average spot of 23.3. Ambrose, like Montoya, is a former road series driver, and thus is very comfortable at tracks like Sonoma. In his five road events in Cup over the last three years, he has three Top 5’s and an average finish of 12.5. He has yet to break into the win column though. Busch is the only driver other than Stewart to win more than one road race in the last three years, and he also leads the field with 155 laps led in that time frame.
Laps led are a very good indicator at road courses, since the laps don’t click away that fast and running out front is usually reserved for the best cars. In that sense, some of the other drivers you might want to consider for Sunday as potentially strong underdogs include the following, all of whom have led at least 30 laps in the last six road course events: Robby Gordon (51), Kasey Kahne (41), Jamie McMurray (36), Denny Hamlin (36), Jimmie Johnson (33), and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (33). Of the six, Hamlin would be the least surprising winner, as he is red-hot of late, leading the series with five wins in 2010, and priced at a fair 12-1. Johnson is a season low 15-1, providing a good indicator of what the experts think of his chances, at least where winning is concerned. No one else in the group is better than 20-1, with Junior actually represented in the FIELD option for wagering, which in a group of 22 other drivers, would pay 10-1.
Some of the usual contenders that have really struggled on the road have been David Reutimann (32.3 avg. fin, 4 starts), Mark Martin (29.0 in two starts last season), Jeff Burton (24.2 avg. fin, 0 laps led), Kevin Harvick (23.0 avg, 0 LL’s), and Matt Kenseth (16.3 avg., 1-Top 10, 0 LL’s). All of these stats date back to the beginning of the ’07 season. Interestingly, Martin used to be one of the series’ top road course aces, however he seems to have lost some of that edge from taking the ’07 & ’08 seasons to run part-time, skipping these events. Also, with as sharp as the Roush Racing Team seems to be at tracks like Michigan, they have proven far from a contender at Infineon and Watkins Glen. In fact, Carl Edwards, on his best days, seems to be the only driver capable of running out front at any given time.
While the places to pass and speeds at this track are limited, the dramatic track change and the storyline of “hired guns” taking on series regulars normally makes for an exciting race. The entire weekend got started with qualifying at 6:35 pm ET on Friday. Starting position at Infineon used to prove more critical, but strangely, the average starting spot of the winner in the last five years here has been an unimpressive 17.0. Happy Hour rank has been significantly more important, with an average rank of 6.2. The race is scheduled for 3:19 PM ET on TNT Sunday.
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